Are Marriages Ending Sooner?

Apparently not. The divorce rate is the lowest it's been since 1970. But you wouldn't get that impression from reading some recent articles.

This opinion piece in the New York Times by two faculty members at Wharton lay out the problems with the recent analysis of a chances of making it to 25 years. They write...

"The census data come from a survey conducted in mid-2004, and at that time, it had not yet been 25 years since the wedding day of around 1 in 10 of those whose marriages they surveyed. And if your wedding was in late 1979, it was simply impossible to have celebrated a 25th anniversary when asked about your marriage in mid-2004.

If the census survey had been conducted six months later, it would have found that a majority of those married in the second half of 1979 were happily moving into their 26th year of marriage. Once these marriages are added to the mix, it turns out that a majority of couples who tied the knot from 1975 to 1979 — about 53 percent — reached their silver anniversary.

This surveying glitch affected only the most recent data. Still, factoring in an appropriate adjustment yields the conclusion that divorce rates have been falling, not rising. This is not just statistical smoke and mirrors"

Wow! The data could have been presented with a lot more nuance. It's a shame the original story was so wrong and people probably won't here about the correction.